基于捕食者-食饵模型的南极深海鲑适宜栖息地分布及未来变化

Habitat suitability distribution and future changes of Bathylagus antarcticus based on predator-prey species distribution models

  • 摘要:
    目的 探究气候变化下南极深海鲑适宜栖息地分布及未来变化,并分析其环境和生物驱动机制。
    方法 基于biomod2集成建模平台和BlockCV包的空间块交叉验证方式,构建南极深海鲑仅环境变量的物种分布模型和加入南极大磷虾、戈氏长腹哲水蚤作为饵料生物变量的捕食者-食饵模型,评估模型性能,筛选最优模型,预测当前及未来适宜栖息地分布。
    结果 以南极大磷虾为饵料生物变量的捕食者-食饵模型性能最佳,相较于仅环境变量模型,其单模型的TSS、AUC均值及达标单模型占比分别提升6.98%、1.93%、14.78%,集成模型的TSS、AUC均值分别提升7.81%、2.25%。预测显示,南极深海鲑当前适宜栖息地主要分布于南极绕极流南界以南的环南极区域 (罗斯海和威德尔海除外);未来呈极向收缩趋势,21世纪末SSP5-8.5情景下整体面积减少23.89%,栖息地丧失主要发生在拉扎列夫海和环南极低纬度区域,罗斯海和威德尔海成为新的适宜栖息地。
    结论 饵料生物变量的引入提升了模型性能和稳定性,使模型预测适宜栖息地在空间和数值上分布更加集中,揭示了环境和饵料生物协同驱动南极深海鲑分布模式的生态可解释路径。本研究为南大洋中上层鱼类资源对未来气候的空间响应提供了更精准的预测依据。

     

    Abstract: The Southern Ocean ecosystem is highly susceptible to climate warming, yet the response of its dominant mesopelagic fish, Bathylagus antarcticus, remains inadequately quantified. Biotic interactions, particularly prey availability, are rarely incorporated into habitat projections, potentially biasing future risk assessments. This study aims to investigate the distribution and future dynamics of suitable habitats for B. antarcticus under climate change, as well as to analyze the underlying environmental and biological driving mechanisms. Based on the biomod2 ensemble modeling platform and spatial block cross-validation via the BlockCV package, we constructed species distribution models (SDMs) for B. antarcticus using environmental-only variables, as well as predator-prey models incorporating Euphausia superba and Metridia gerlachei as prey variables. Model performance was evaluated to select the optimal model for predicting current and future suitable habitat distributions. The predator-prey model incorporating E. superba as a prey variable achieved the best performance. Compared to the environmental-only model, it increased the mean TSS, mean AUC, and proportion of qualifying single models by 6.98%, 1.93%, and 14.78%, respectively, while improving the mean TSS and mean AUC of the ensemble model by 7.81% and 2.25%. Predictions indicated that the current suitable habitats of B. antarcticus are primarily distributed in the circum-Antarctic region south of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (excluding the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea). In the future, these habitats are projected to undergo poleward contraction. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the end of the 21st century, the overall suitable habitat area is predicted to decrease by 23.89%. Habitat loss mainly occurs in the Lazarev Sea and lower-latitude circum-Antarctic regions, whereas the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea will emerge as new suitable habitats. The inclusion of prey variables enhanced model performance and stability, resulting in a more spatially and numerically concentrated distribution of predicted suitable habitats. This highlights an ecologically interpretable pathway driven synergistically by environmental factors and prey availability. This study provides a more accurate predictive basis for understanding the spatial responses of pelagic fish resources in the Southern Ocean to future climate change.

     

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