Distribution forecasting of habitat of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) during the climate change in the coastal waters

The change of surface water temperature affects the habitat distribution of pelagic fishes. According to the chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) fishery-dependent data from July to December during 2003 to 2012 in the Chinese coastal waters, and sea surface water temperature (SST) from remote sensing, the suitable index (SI) from the fishing effort and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) based on SST were established by using the method of normal distribution. The halntat suitability index (HSI) were estimated by taking the average. The latitude distribution and area change of the most suitable habitat (HSI>0.8) was analysed when the monthly SST increased and declined respectively by 0.5 °C, 1 °C and 2 °C. Results showed that the coastal chub mackerel had an obvious southward shifting tendency when the SST increased, and the most suitable habitat area changed from –73.1% to 44.7% during July to December. There was also an obvious northward shifting tendency when the SST dropped and the most suitable habitat area changed from –54.9% to 123.4% during July to December. The area also had different developing trends. The research suggests that the findings of this article can be used to predict the coastal chub mackerel habitat and its fishing ground under El Nino or La Nina, as well as changes in offshore water in the future.