Calculation and influencing factors of total factor productivity of China's characteristic freshwater fish industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period

This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of total factor productivity (TFP) in China's specialty freshwater fish industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and identify the key drivers of its growth, providing empirical evidence for formulating precision industrial policies for the "15th Five-Year Plan." Based on longitudinal survey data from 2020 to 2025, the DEA-Malmquist index method was employed to measure and decompose the TFP index. Subsequently, panel random effects and Tobit models were constructed to empirically examine the driving mechanisms across four dimensions: human capital, organizational mode, operational scale, and capital input. The results show that the industry's TFP grew at an average annual rate of 3.75%, primarily driven by technical efficiency improvements dominated by scale efficiency, while the contribution of technological progress remains suboptimal. The industry's evolution path exhibits significant differentiation, forming three typical patterns: balanced high-growth, efficiency catch-up, and slow-growth. "Intangible factors," represented by human capital and organizational level, constitute the core engine driving TFP improvement. China's specialty freshwater fish industry is at a critical juncture of transitioning from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth. Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," policy-making must transcend aggregate-oriented thinking and shift toward precise measures based on species-specific characteristics. The focus should be on activating the engine of technological progress and promoting a paradigm shift from extensive growth relying on physical factor expansion to intensive development driven by knowledge accumulation and organizational optimization, thereby jointly propelling the industry toward high-quality development.