应用STAR模型研究海州湾小黄鱼春季资源量的时空分布

Spatio-temporal distribution of Larimichthys polyactis in Haizhou Bay based on STAR model

  • 摘要: 根据2011年、2013—2016年春季在海州湾进行的渔业资源调查数据,应用结构化加性回归 (structured additive regression, STAR)模型框架,结合delta方法,根据对空间数据的不同处理方式构建了5种物种分布模型,并比较各模型对出现概率和资源量2种数据类型的拟合效果、残差空间独立性和预测性能。结果显示,加入空间项后模型拟合效果提升,残差空间自相关性显著降低,且正态模型和delta模型的提升较二项模型明显。空间加性模型 (geoadditive models)的AIC值在二项模型和正态模型中均为最低,较无空间项广义可加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)分别下降7.60和144.90。模型拟合上,变系数模型 (varying coefficient models, VCM)的决定系数和AUC均最高,分别为0.68和0.94。预测性能上,空间加性模型交叉验证的AUC值为 (0.793±0.100)最高,均方根误差(RMSE) 值为 (21.65±4.83)最低,表明对小黄鱼出现概率和资源密度的估计均最准确。在最优模型的基础上,根据无结构网格、有限体积、自由表面三维原始方程的海洋环流模型(FVCOM)模拟环境数据,利用delta空间加性模型预测海州湾小黄鱼春季资源的空间分布。研究表明,小黄鱼资源分布主要集中于海州湾南部和东部近岸水域 (34.0°N~34.5°N,121.0°E~121.5°E),随着水深的增加而逐渐减少,且年间变动明显。本研究旨在为海州湾小黄鱼渔业资源的开发和保护提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: This study was conducted to evaluate and improve model performance for estimating abundance and occurrence of small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) based on the data collected from fishery independent bottom trawl surveys data in Haizhou Bay in the spring of 2011 and 2013-2016. According to different methods of processing spatial data, five species distribution models were formulated by combining the delta method with structured additive regression framework, they were compared in terms of their performance on fitness, predictive capacity and independdence of residuals for two commonly used response variables, namely, occurrence and abundance. Result showed that models with spatial covariates had significantly better fitting effect and lower residual spatial correlation, and positve model and delta model showed more improvement than binomial model. The AIC of geoadditive models was the lowest in both binomial model and positive model (respectively lower than GAM without the spatial term by 7.60 and 144.90). Varying coefficient models had the highest R2 (0.68) and fitting AUC (0.94). Geoadditive model had the highest AUC (0.793±0.100) and the lowest RMSE (21.65±4.83), indicating that geoadditive model's estimation n the occurrence probability and resource density of L. polyactis were most accurate. Therefore, we predicted the spatial distribution of L. polyactis in Spring using delta-geoadditive model based on FVCOM simulation data. Prediction result reflected the distribution and variations of L. polyactis was mainly distributes in the southern and western coastal areas (34.0°N-34.5°N, 121.0°E-121.5°E), decreasing with the water depth increase and varying significantly over the years. This study aimed to provided a scientific basis for the development and protecttion of L. polyactis fishery resources in Haizhou Bay.

     

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