基于不同投喂策略的循环水养殖系统氨氮预测模型

Ammonia nitrogen prediction model for recirculating aquaculture system based on different feeding strategies

  • 摘要:
    目的 实现对循环水养殖系统水体中总氨氮 (TAN)浓度的预测,并研究投喂策略对TAN预测模型预测精度的影响。
    方法 本研究测定了斑石鲷养殖池内7个水质指标,采用主成分分析 (PCA)和Pearson相关性分析法对数据进行前处理并形成三种数据集:原始数据集 (OD)、Pearson数据集 (Pearson D)和PCA数据集 (PCAD),结合随机森林 (RF)、BP神经网络 (BP)、门控循环单元 (GRU)、长短期记忆网络 (LSTM)这4种模型,对两种投喂策略下养殖水体中的TAN浓度进行预测,并采用均方根误差 (RMSE)、均方误差 (MSE)、平均绝对误差 (MAE)和R方值 (R2-score)对模型进行评估。
    结果 RF模型的预测效果最差,随着投喂策略的改变,GRU与LSTM模型预测精度较高且稳定,而BP模型预测精度波动较大。不同投喂阶段筛选出的最优预测模型不同,人工和自动化投喂阶段的最优模型分别为Pearson D-BP和Pearson D-GRU模型,在整个实验周期中,PCAD-LSTM模型、Pearson D-LSTM模型和Pearson D-GRU模型预测性能较好。人工投喂阶段与自动化投喂阶段相比,Pearson D-LSTM模型的RMSE、MSE和MAE分别降低了0.007 2、0.001 9和0.003 6,R2-score升高了0.107 5;Pearson D-GRU模型的RMSE、MSE和MAE分别降低了0.003 0、0.000 8和0.003 0,R2-score升高了0.082 6。
    结论 投喂策略会影响TAN预测模型的预测精度,结合Pearson分析的GRU或LSTM模型可很好地实现该系统养殖水体中TAN的预测,该结果可为RAS氨氮预测技术的优化提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The prediction and warning of total ammonia nitrogen (TAN) in aquaculture are crucial. Current optimizations of TAN prediction models primarily rely on improved algorithms. However, various management strategies, such as feeding strategies, may be implemented during the aquaculture production process, potentially affecting the prediction performance of these models. This study aims to model and predict TAN concentrations in recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) and investigate the impact of different feeding strategies on the prediction performance of TAN models. We measured 7 water quality parameters in the tanks of Oplegnathus punctatus within an RAS. The data were pre-processed using principal component analysis (PCA) or Pearson correlation analysis, resulting in three datasets: the original dataset (OD), the Pearson dataset (PearsonD) and the PCA dataset (PCAD). These datasets were then integrated with random forest (RF), back propagation neural network (BP), gated circulation unit (GRU), and long short-term memory (LSTM) to forecast TAN concentrations under two distinct feeding strategies. The performance of the models was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-square value (R2-score). The RF modle exhibited the poorest prediction performance. The GRU and LSTM models demonstrated acceptable and stable prediction accuracy, while the accuracy of the BP model varied. Optimal prediction models differed under the two feeding strategies: under artificial feeding, Pearson correlation analysis combined with BP yielded higher accuracy, wheras under automatic feeding, Pearson correlation analysis combined with GRU performed better. Pearson correlation analysis combined with LSTM or GRU, and PCA combined with LSTM, showed superior performance throughout the experimental period. Compared to the automatic feeding strategy, under artificial feeding, the RMSE, MSE and MAE of the models built with Pearson correlation analysis and LSTM decreased by 0.007 2, 0.001 9 and 0.003 6 respectively, while the R2-score increased by 0.107 5. Similarly, the RMSE, MSE and MAE of the models built with Pearson correlation analysis and GRU decreased by 0.003 0, 0.000 8 and 0.003 0 respectively, and the R2-score increased by 0.082 6. Feeding strategy significantly influences the prediction accuracy of TAN models, and Pearson correlation analysis combined with GRU or LSTM could be employed to predict TAN in RAS effectively. This study provides a reference for the optimization of ammonia nitrogen prediction technology in RAS.

     

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