鲸类物种潜在生物可移除量估算及其对管理的启示

Calculating of the potential biological removal of cetacean and its implications for management

  • 摘要:
    目的 为解决鲸类物种由于寿命较长和低繁殖力及种群丰度难以获得准确的观测和评估等特性。
    方法 实验采用模拟分析方法预测了鲸类物种丰度变化和人为影响以提升保护鲸类物种的能力。潜在生物可移除量(Potential Biological Removal, PBR)是维持鲸类物种可持续健康发展的极限死亡量,它由最小种群丰度(NMIN)、种群最大净生产率(RMAX)和种群恢复因子(FR) 3个关键参数决定,3个参数值的不同设定会导致极限死亡量估算的偏差或误差。实验通过模拟,考察处于衰减水平状态下的鲸类物种在NMINRMAXFR等参数估算不确定情况下的恢复能力,即在管理目标规定年份中种群是否恢复并保持在最大净生产水平(Maximum Net Productivity Level, MNPL)的可能性。
    结果 结果显示,针对在当前种群丰度和人为造成的死亡量估计存在不确定性的情况下,选择NMIN的第5百分位估计值(5%-N)FR=0.5的组合,能使处于衰减的种群在80年内恢复资源(高于MNPL)的概率达95%以上。
    结论 研究表明,可根据种群丰度估计的精确度以及不同的保护目标(如种群恢复时间),调整NMINFR的值以确定鲸类物种的极限死亡量,为不同的鲸类物种保护和种群恢复提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Accurate predictions of the population of cetacean and anthropogenic disturbances are essential to their conversation, but are limited by the characteristics of the long-lived and low reproductive rates of cetaceans. Potential Biological Removal (PBR) is a mortality limit to maintain population sustainability, and is used to compute conservation reference points for human-caused mortality of marine mammals. This study used simulation methods to identify acceptable levels of human-caused mortality for cetaceans. PBR is calculated as a product of the minimum population estimate (NMIN), one-half of the maximum net productivity rate (RMAX), and the recovery factor (FR). Setting of the three-parameter values will lead to deviations or errors in the estimation of the mortality limit. The PBR was evaluated the basis of the assumption that at least 95% of simulated populations met the proposed management objectives (populations beginning at 30% of the transport capacity (K) recovered to at least MNPL after 80 years). In a variety of scenarios, the PBR that used approximately the 5th percentile of the abundance estimate for NMIN and a value of 0.5 for FR met the criteria in bias trials. According to different management objectives, develop alternative parameters of PBR that determine marine mammal conservation reference points for human-caused mortality. This approach may be useful in supporting the establishment of new bycatch management programs.

     

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