基于结构方程模型探讨环境因子对南海金线鱼类CPUE的影响

Impact of environmental factors on the CPUE of threadfin bream in the South China Sea based on Structural Equation Modeling

  • 摘要:
    目的 深入了解环境变化对南海金线鱼类资源量的潜在影响。
    方法 运用结构方程模型 (SEM),基于2018—2021年收集的南海渔业捕捞日志与环境数据,系统分析了海表温度 (SST)、海表盐度 (SSS)、海表高度 (SSH)、叶绿素a (Chl.a)浓度以及降水等环境因子对南海金线鱼类单位捕捞努力量渔获量 (CPUE)的影响及其作用过程。
    结果 ①金线鱼类年、月平均CPUE呈现明显的年际变化和月间周期性波动,5—7月的渔汛期与南海伏季休渔期 (5—8月)钓渔具捕捞强度密切相关。②金线鱼类CPUE与环境因子的关系存在显著的季节变化。年际尺度上,影响金线鱼类CPUE的主要环境因子为SSS、SST;季节尺度上,春季主要影响因子为SST和SSH,夏季主要为SSS、降水,秋、冬季主要为SST。
    结论 金线鱼类捕捞量存在显著季节变化,因此,制订金线鱼类的资源管理策略时应将其作为重要的考虑因素。本研究明确了海洋环境因子之间的相互作用及其对金线鱼类资源的影响程度,为科学制订南海金线鱼类的渔业管理提供重要依据。

     

    Abstract: The South China Sea, as a critical area for global marine biodiversity, has a unique marine ecosystem that plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining regional ecological balance and fishery resources. To achieve a deeper understanding of the potential impacts of environmental changes on the resources of threadfin bream (Nemipterus spp.) in the South China Sea, this study explores the effects of environment factors on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Nemipterus spp. and its influencing mechanism based on Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The research analyzes fishery logbook and environmental data collected from the South China Sea during 2018-2021, examining the influence of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), chlorophyll-a (Chl.a) concentration, and precipitation on the CPUE of Nemipterus spp.. The results show: ① the annual average CPUE of Nemipterus spp. exhibits significant interannual variability, accompanied by cyclical fluctuations across different months, with fishing seasons from May to July closely related to fishing intensity during both open and closed fishing months. ② the relationship between CPUE of Nemipterus spp. and environmental factors shows pronounced seasonal variations. SSS and SST emerge as the primary factors influencing CPUE. SST and SSH playing dominant roles in the spring, while SSS and precipitation being the primary factors are the primary factors in summer, and SST in autumn and winter. The study indicates that management strategies for Nemipterus spp. fisheries need to be adjusted according to seasonal changes to accommodate the impact of environmental factors on the catch volumes of Nemipterus spp.. Conversely, the impact of environmental factors on CPUE is relatively subdued in autumn and winter. This study clarifies the interactions among marine environmental factors and their specific effects on Nemipterus spp., with the aim of providing a critical foundation for the scientific formulation of fishery management strategies and the conservation of marine ecosystem in the South China Sea.

     

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