渤海口虾蛄资源管理策略评估

Study of the management strategies evaluation for Oratosquilla oratoria in the Bohai Sea

  • 摘要:
    目的 促进渤海口虾蛄资源的科学养护与管理。
    方法 基于Bootstrap的遗传算法ELEFAN和管理策略评估模型 (MSE),估算了口虾蛄生活史参数,并比较了多种自然死亡系数 (M)估算情景下管理措施 (MP)的稳健性。
    结果 2014至2015年的口虾蛄体长-体重关系为W=0.0148*L2.94,渐进体长Linf为20.14 cm,生长参数K为0.74;2024年的体长-体重关系为W=0.0228*L2.78Linf为20.19 cm,K为0.73。在现有数据条件下,共筛选出16个可用的MP,其中包括9个投入控制MP和7个产出控制MP。MSE结果表明,投入控制MP在维持资源量、产量以及保持种群健康与避免过度捕捞方面的表现要整体优于产出控制MP。
    结论 curE80 (当前捕捞努力量的80%)是唯一能够同时满足全部性能指标的MP,并且在不同M情境下具有较好的稳健性。意义研究结果可为渤海口虾蛄资源的科学管理提供依据,也可为M估算方法在MSE中的不确定性研究提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Fishery resources in the Bohai Sea have declined markedly due to overfishing and habitat degradation, leading to an increasing dominance of invertebrate species such as the mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria. Here, we estimated growth parameters of O. oratoria using ELEFAN GA method with bootstrap resampling based on length–frequency data collected in 2014, 2015 and 2024, and conducted a management strategy evaluation (MSE) while propagating uncertainty through alternative natural mortality coefficient (M) estimates. The results indicated that length-weight relationship in 2014 and 2015 was W=0.0148*L2.94 and estimated growth parameters, including asymptotic body length Linf and growth parameter K were 20.14 cm and 0.74, respectively. In 2024, the length-weight relationship was W=0.0228*L2.78, and Linf and K were 20.19 cm and 0.73, respectively. A total of 16 MPs were identified as feasible MPs for the management of O. oratoria in the Bohai Sea, including 9 input controls and 7 output controls. Across all M-setting scenarios, input controls generally performed better compared with output controls in maintaining stock status and yield and avoiding overfishing performance metrics. Moreover, only curE80 (80% of current effort level) consistently provided the best overall trade-off between conservation and exploitation among all M scenarios. Our results therefore recommend curE80 as a priority MP for O. oratoria in the Bohai Sea, while emphasizing that management outcomes remain sensitive to M estimates.

     

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